Ray Dalio: The Mechanics of the War Economy

What is happening now would have been unimaginable not long ago. It was only unimaginable because it had never happened in our lifetimes. However, if one studied history one would have seen that it happened so regularly in the past that one would have considered it inevitable.  

More specifically, the executive and legislative branches of government who control fiscal policy (i.e., the amount and type of government spending and taxing) and the central banks who control monetary policies (i.e., the amount and type of money and credit) announced unprecedented amounts of both fiscal and monetary stimulation that will include massive amounts of helicopter money (i.e., direct distributions of cash to citizens).  That was most notable with the recent announcements from the U.S. President, Congress, and Federal Reserve. The particulars of how this tsunami of money and credit will flow is extremely important but I won’t get into that now. What I will do is try to convey the very big picture implications of this, focusing on the mechanics as well as the implications.  Because this tsunami is far bigger than anything that has ever happened in our lifetimes, we need to broaden our perspective to see cases that occurred before our lifetimes.     

 

Read Ray's full thoughts on LinkedIn here.