‘I Know It Sounds Crazy’: Cathie Wood’s Next Big Idea

Speaking from Ark’s headquarters in Florida ahead of her appearance at the Sohn Hearts & Minds Conference on Friday, Wood says she believes disinflation is now just around the corner in the US.
Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood remains as big-picture as ever. Picture: David Rowe

James Thomson

‘I Know It Sounds Crazy’: Cathie Wood’s Next Big Idea

November 17, 2023
Speaking from Ark’s headquarters in Florida ahead of her appearance at the Sohn Hearts & Minds Conference on Friday, Wood says she believes disinflation is now just around the corner in the US.
Read Transcript

It’s been a sneakily good year for the world’s most divisive investor, Cathie Wood.

‍Her flagship Ark Innovation ETF is up 41 per cent, or more than twice the broader market. Her long-held belief in the transformative power of artificial intelligence has become a mainstream investor narrative.

‍The price of her beloved bitcoin has doubled to almost $US38,000 this year, while the share price of Tesla, Ark’s most prominent holding, has jumped 124 per cent.

‍And perhaps most importantly, Wood’s view that US inflation would rapidly fade appears to be playing out, with soft consumer price and producer price data released this week coming in softer than expected, sparking an impressive rally on Wall Street.

‍Speaking from Ark’s headquarters in Florida ahead of her appearance at the Sohn Hearts & Minds Conference on Friday, Wood says she believes disinflation is now just around the corner in the US.

‍The dramatic fall in the share price of Cisco on Thursday night after it warned of a slowdown in orders, is indicative of a broader slowdown in capital spending that Wood believes will force the Federal Reserve to pivot rapidly towards rate cuts.

‍“I think they’re going to see [inflation back at their target of] 2 per cent all right. I think they’re going to see minus 2 per cent, and that is going to precipitate a very significant shift in Fed policy,” she says.

‍Wood’s army of (often male) critics will point out that while she may have called many of the big themes in markets this year, her longer-term predictions continue to look extreme. Ark has tipped bitcoin to hit $US1.48 million by 2030, and believes Tesla’s share price can jump nine-fold by 2027. And despite this year’s gains, Wood’s flagship fund is down 73 per cent off its 2021 peak, and basically flat over five years.

‍Her call for deflation and rate cuts raises an obvious issue: while lower rates will help long-duration growth stocks, a sharp economic slowdown will also hit consumer-facing tech stocks such as Tesla.

‍Wood does expect a harder landing than many pundits, but argues the US has been in a series of rolling recessions in various sectors – including housing – for two years, and there is unlikely to be the sort of systemic problems seen during the GFC.

‍The price cuts Tesla boss Elon Musk has pushed through on the firm’s vehicles are proof he sees the potential for an economic slowdown, but Wood argues that the recent decisions by Ford and GM to wind back their expansions into electric vehicles should mean Tesla’s market share can stay higher for longer.

‍And she says EVs will continue to capture a bigger share of the car market as drivers seek vehicles that are cheaper to run and maintain. “Innovation tends to gain share at an accelerated rate during a recession.”

‍Ark continues to bet that Tesla, via its plans to make its vehicles fully autonomous, remains the best AI play in the world. But while markets have embraced the potential for AI this year, Wood has become more selective in the sector.

‍Ark’s flagship fund has sold its holding in Nvidia, for example, and Wood has warned Alphabet (owner of Google) faces a classic innovator’s dilemma; the more it expands into AI, the more it threatens its revenue from web search.

‍She favours companies that are already leaders in a tech field; have real AI expertise and commitment; have strong, preferably global distribution; and have data no one else has. US robotic process automation software UiPath (up 52 per cent this year) is an example, but Tesla is the clear leader, Wood says.

‍While she concedes the deployment of full self-driving has taken longer than she expected, she remains convinced it will be approved by regulators who are seeing road accidents surge; Tesla’s self-driving tests are running one incident every 3.2 million miles, compared to one per 500,000 miles for the average car on the road. With full self-driving comes autonomous taxis, central to Ark’s bullish Tesla case.

‍If Wood’s enthusiasm for Tesla is undiminished by the human controversy machine that is Elon Musk, her support for bitcoin has, incredibly, been enhanced by Sam Bankman-Fried’s fraud conviction.

‍“FTX was a centralised entity. It was completely opaque, not at all transparent and completely fraudulent. Bitcoin is completely decentralised and completely transparent.”

‍The fact it has risen as US regional banks have come under increasing pressure this year is proof investors are looking for assets that will protect them from counterparty risk.

‍Wood sees a role for bitcoin in emerging markets and argues that, unlike gold, a rising bitcoin price cannot incentivise new supply because there will only ever be 21 million bitcoin created. On Ark’s numbers, a diversified portfolio should have between 2 per cent and 6.5 per cent in bitcoin; the mooted approval of spot bitcoin ETFs could make that diversification easier, and provide an extra tailwind for the asset class.

‍If Wood’s credentials as an investor are regularly questioned, her skills as a marketer are as sharp as ever. She never sits on the fence, and seems totally unchastened by that sharp fall in her flagship fund from the frothy days of 2021.

‍That justifiably grates with many in markets; there is none of the public self-reflection we typically see from great investors who have had tough years. But since Chanticleer first met Wood in Melbourne in 2017, she has never strayed from focusing on very large, very long-term ideas. The question is whether the changes she sees arriving by the end of this decade – bitcoin up 39-fold in seven years, for example – actually arrive.

‍As Chanticleer’s time with Wood winds up, I ask her to nominate the big idea that we’re not thinking enough about.

‍For all the focus on the damage AI could do to civilisation, Wood says we’re ignoring the potential benefits to humanity.

‍She gives the example of AI providing companionship to the elderly or even younger people; testing is under way to explore the benefits of an AI companion who knows your interests, can converse in topics of the day, and offer support, encouragement and guidance.

‍“I know it sounds crazy,” Wood says. Then again, that’s never really worried her.

This article was originally posted by The Australian Financial Review here.

Licensed by Copyright Agency. You must not copy this work without permission.

It’s been a sneakily good year for the world’s most divisive investor, Cathie Wood.

‍Her flagship Ark Innovation ETF is up 41 per cent, or more than twice the broader market. Her long-held belief in the transformative power of artificial intelligence has become a mainstream investor narrative.

‍The price of her beloved bitcoin has doubled to almost $US38,000 this year, while the share price of Tesla, Ark’s most prominent holding, has jumped 124 per cent.

‍And perhaps most importantly, Wood’s view that US inflation would rapidly fade appears to be playing out, with soft consumer price and producer price data released this week coming in softer than expected, sparking an impressive rally on Wall Street.

‍Speaking from Ark’s headquarters in Florida ahead of her appearance at the Sohn Hearts & Minds Conference on Friday, Wood says she believes disinflation is now just around the corner in the US.

‍The dramatic fall in the share price of Cisco on Thursday night after it warned of a slowdown in orders, is indicative of a broader slowdown in capital spending that Wood believes will force the Federal Reserve to pivot rapidly towards rate cuts.

‍“I think they’re going to see [inflation back at their target of] 2 per cent all right. I think they’re going to see minus 2 per cent, and that is going to precipitate a very significant shift in Fed policy,” she says.

‍Wood’s army of (often male) critics will point out that while she may have called many of the big themes in markets this year, her longer-term predictions continue to look extreme. Ark has tipped bitcoin to hit $US1.48 million by 2030, and believes Tesla’s share price can jump nine-fold by 2027. And despite this year’s gains, Wood’s flagship fund is down 73 per cent off its 2021 peak, and basically flat over five years.

‍Her call for deflation and rate cuts raises an obvious issue: while lower rates will help long-duration growth stocks, a sharp economic slowdown will also hit consumer-facing tech stocks such as Tesla.

‍Wood does expect a harder landing than many pundits, but argues the US has been in a series of rolling recessions in various sectors – including housing – for two years, and there is unlikely to be the sort of systemic problems seen during the GFC.

‍The price cuts Tesla boss Elon Musk has pushed through on the firm’s vehicles are proof he sees the potential for an economic slowdown, but Wood argues that the recent decisions by Ford and GM to wind back their expansions into electric vehicles should mean Tesla’s market share can stay higher for longer.

‍And she says EVs will continue to capture a bigger share of the car market as drivers seek vehicles that are cheaper to run and maintain. “Innovation tends to gain share at an accelerated rate during a recession.”

‍Ark continues to bet that Tesla, via its plans to make its vehicles fully autonomous, remains the best AI play in the world. But while markets have embraced the potential for AI this year, Wood has become more selective in the sector.

‍Ark’s flagship fund has sold its holding in Nvidia, for example, and Wood has warned Alphabet (owner of Google) faces a classic innovator’s dilemma; the more it expands into AI, the more it threatens its revenue from web search.

‍She favours companies that are already leaders in a tech field; have real AI expertise and commitment; have strong, preferably global distribution; and have data no one else has. US robotic process automation software UiPath (up 52 per cent this year) is an example, but Tesla is the clear leader, Wood says.

‍While she concedes the deployment of full self-driving has taken longer than she expected, she remains convinced it will be approved by regulators who are seeing road accidents surge; Tesla’s self-driving tests are running one incident every 3.2 million miles, compared to one per 500,000 miles for the average car on the road. With full self-driving comes autonomous taxis, central to Ark’s bullish Tesla case.

‍If Wood’s enthusiasm for Tesla is undiminished by the human controversy machine that is Elon Musk, her support for bitcoin has, incredibly, been enhanced by Sam Bankman-Fried’s fraud conviction.

‍“FTX was a centralised entity. It was completely opaque, not at all transparent and completely fraudulent. Bitcoin is completely decentralised and completely transparent.”

‍The fact it has risen as US regional banks have come under increasing pressure this year is proof investors are looking for assets that will protect them from counterparty risk.

‍Wood sees a role for bitcoin in emerging markets and argues that, unlike gold, a rising bitcoin price cannot incentivise new supply because there will only ever be 21 million bitcoin created. On Ark’s numbers, a diversified portfolio should have between 2 per cent and 6.5 per cent in bitcoin; the mooted approval of spot bitcoin ETFs could make that diversification easier, and provide an extra tailwind for the asset class.

‍If Wood’s credentials as an investor are regularly questioned, her skills as a marketer are as sharp as ever. She never sits on the fence, and seems totally unchastened by that sharp fall in her flagship fund from the frothy days of 2021.

‍That justifiably grates with many in markets; there is none of the public self-reflection we typically see from great investors who have had tough years. But since Chanticleer first met Wood in Melbourne in 2017, she has never strayed from focusing on very large, very long-term ideas. The question is whether the changes she sees arriving by the end of this decade – bitcoin up 39-fold in seven years, for example – actually arrive.

‍As Chanticleer’s time with Wood winds up, I ask her to nominate the big idea that we’re not thinking enough about.

‍For all the focus on the damage AI could do to civilisation, Wood says we’re ignoring the potential benefits to humanity.

‍She gives the example of AI providing companionship to the elderly or even younger people; testing is under way to explore the benefits of an AI companion who knows your interests, can converse in topics of the day, and offer support, encouragement and guidance.

‍“I know it sounds crazy,” Wood says. Then again, that’s never really worried her.

This article was originally posted by The Australian Financial Review here.

Licensed by Copyright Agency. You must not copy this work without permission.

Disclaimer: This material has been prepared by Australian Financial Review, published on Nov 17, 2023. HM1 is not responsible for the content of linked websites or content prepared by third party. The inclusion of these links and third-party content does not in any way imply any form of endorsement by HM1 of the products or services provided by persons or organisations who are responsible for the linked websites and third-party content. This information is for general information only and does not consider the objectives, financial situation or needs of any person. Before making an investment decision, you should read the relevant disclosure document (if appropriate) and seek professional advice to determine whether the investment and information is suitable for you.

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IFM Investors small cap specialist Rikki Bannan addresses the Sohn Hearts & Minds Investment Leaders Conference at Sydney Opera House. Picture: Renee NowytargerIFM Investors small cap specialist Rikki Bannan addresses the Sohn Hearts & Minds Investment Leaders Conference at Sydney Opera House. Picture: Renee NowytargerIFM Investors small cap specialist Rikki Bannan addresses the Sohn Hearts & Minds Investment Leaders Conference at Sydney Opera House. Picture: Renee NowytargerIFM Investors small cap specialist Rikki Bannan addresses the Sohn Hearts & Minds Investment Leaders Conference at Sydney Opera House. Picture: Renee Nowytarger
November 17, 2023

Hot Stocks To Ride The Next Healthcare Trends

Healthcare stocks – from sleep apnoea giant ResMed, to cancer diagnostic biotech Telix Pharmaceuticals – were recommended at the Sohn Hearts & Minds Investment Leaders Conference on Friday.

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November 17, 2023

How Daniel Loeb, The Real Bobby Axelrod, Made His Wall Street Billions

When Damian Lewis, the actor who plays the ruthless hedge fund boss in the drama series Billions was looking for inspiration, he sat down with Daniel Loeb.

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November 17, 2023

The 12 Hottest Stock Tips From This Year’s Sohn Experts

It might be time to look beyond big names. That was the message from top fund managers, company founders and super funds at the Sohn Hearts & Minds.

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Azora Capital founder Ravi Chopra. Picture: Renee NowytargerAzora Capital founder Ravi Chopra. Picture: Renee NowytargerAzora Capital founder Ravi Chopra. Picture: Renee NowytargerAzora Capital founder Ravi Chopra. Picture: Renee Nowytarger
November 17, 2023

Webster Financial ‘Avoided The Mistakes Of US Bank Failures’

The US financial sector is not without its problems but Ravi Chopra backs Webster Financial Corporation as his stock pick for the 2023 Sohn Hearts & Minds Investment Leaders Conference.

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November 17, 2023

Why Stock Picker Cathie Wood Of ARK Can’t Stand Google

The world’s highest-profile tech investor, Cathie Wood, might be bruised but she is certainly bullish. Nor is she holding back.

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Munro Partners partner and portfolio manager Kieran Moore at the Sohn Hearts & Minds conference in Sydney. Picture: Renee NowytargerMunro Partners partner and portfolio manager Kieran Moore at the Sohn Hearts & Minds conference in Sydney. Picture: Renee NowytargerMunro Partners partner and portfolio manager Kieran Moore at the Sohn Hearts & Minds conference in Sydney. Picture: Renee NowytargerMunro Partners partner and portfolio manager Kieran Moore at the Sohn Hearts & Minds conference in Sydney. Picture: Renee Nowytarger
November 17, 2023

Wise Share Price Could Rise 50pc By 2025, Says Munro Partners

Global growth fund manager Munro has about $4.3bn in funds under management across four global funds, and usually invests in companies that are poised to win from massive structural change.

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December 10, 2024

Professor Jane Butler: Sparking Hope for Spinal Cord Injuries

In this episode of the Hearts & Minds Podcast, we sit down with Professor Jane Butler to discuss her groundbreaking research into spinal cord injuries.

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impact-podcasts
September 24, 2024

Asian Market Potential with Tom Naughton of Prusik

CIO Charlie Lanchester sits down with Tom Naughton, CIO of Prusik Investment Mgmt. Tom shares his investment philosophy, the opportunities and challenges in Asian markets, and how his 2023 conference stock pick, Swire Pacific (0019.HK), delivered an impressive 30% return.

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investing
September 4, 2024

Building Hearts and Minds with Co-Founders Matthew Grounds and Guy Fowler

In this episode, co-founders Matthew Grounds AM and Guy Fowler OAM discuss their journey in building Hearts & Minds and its philanthropic model that has donated over $70 million to medical research.

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investing
June 25, 2024

Navigating the Resource Sector with Jeremy Bond of Terra Capital

In this episode, we chat with Jeremy Bond, Founder of Terra Capital and HM1 Conference Fund Manager. Tune in for insights into the world of resource investments and the exciting opportunities that lie ahead.

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investing
June 11, 2024

Prof. Nadia Badawi on Cerebral Palsy Breakthroughs and Neonatal Care

Dive deep into the groundbreaking work of Professor Nadia Badawi, an internationally recognised neonatologist and expert in Cerebral Palsy.

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impact-podcasts
May 28, 2024

Investment Insights: Rikki Bannan on Top Picks and Trends

Join us for an engaging episode featuring Rikki Bannan, Portfolio Manager of IFM Investors and HM1 Conference Fund Manager. This episode explores Rikki's career journey, investment strategies, and her 2023 conference stock pick, Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX.TLX).

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investing
December 6, 2023

Peter Cooper talks building and instilling a culture of humility and excellence

In this episode, our guest is the renowned investor, Peter Cooper, founder and Chief Investment Officer of Cooper Investors (Core Fund Manager). A founding supporter of Hearts and Minds, Peter is a staunch advocate of our model and its philanthropic purpose, actively engaging in every facet of Hearts and Minds.

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investing
November 28, 2023

Jun Bei Liu on her high conviction investment strategy

In this episode, HM1 Chief Investment Officer Charlie Lanchester is joined by Jun Bei Liu. Jun Bei is the Portfolio Manager of Tribeca’s Alpha Plus Fund and since taking over managing the Fund, she has quadrupled AUM.

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investing
November 21, 2023

The world of rare genetic disease research

In this episode, we speak to Associate Professor Gina Ravenscroft. Gina is an Associate Professor in Neurogenetics at the Harry Perkins Institute of Medical Research in Perth. Her research interests are in rare genetic diseases, with a particular focus on neurogenetic diseases in babies and children.

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impact-podcasts
November 14, 2023

Learn what makes a high conviction investment and how to avoid short-term noise

In this episode, our Core Fund Manager Magellan shares how they select top stocks for the HM1 portfolio.

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investing
November 7, 2023

Delve into the world of kids critical care and trauma research

In thie episode, we are joined by Dr. Marino Festa, or Rino for short. He is the Medical Director of NSW Kids ECMO Referral Service and a senior specialist in Paediatric Intensive Care at Children’s Hospital at Westmead.

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impact-podcasts
October 31, 2023

Where Regal's Phil King is searching for opportunities

HM1's CIO, Charlie Lanchester, talks to Phil King of Regal Funds about his passion for stocks, his ongoing search for opportunities, and some of the sectors he’s excited by right now. Phil King of Regal Funds, has been a tremendous supporter of Hearts & Minds since the beginning.

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investing
October 24, 2023

Preventing recurrent miscarriages and birth defects

In this episode, CEO Paul Rayson is joined by renowned biomedical researcher Professor Sally Dunwoodie. Prof. Dunwoodie's groundbreaking work has revolutionised clinical practices and enabled genetic diagnostic tests worldwide. In 2017, her team achieved a double breakthrough with the potential to prevent recurrent miscarriages and various birth defects.

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impact-podcasts
October 17, 2023

Nick Griffin on how he finds global winners

In this episode, CIO Charlie Lanchester chats with Nick Griffin, the founding partner and CIO of Munro Partners, one of HM1's Core Fund Managers. They go over his career to date, reflect on the lessons he’s learned, and trace the decisions that led to him starting Munro.

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investing
October 10, 2023

How A/Prof Matt Call is teaching our body to kill cancer

In this episode, CEO Paul Rayson is joined by WEHI’s Associate Professor Matt Call to talk about his incredible research. Matt’s team teaches and trains the body's own immune cells to target and kill cancer cells.

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impact-podcasts
October 3, 2023

Understanding the 4 pillar framework underpinning a high conviction strategy

Listen to episode one with Chief Investment Officer Charlie Lanchester and TDM Growth Partners Investment Team Members Ed Cowan and Fraser Christie. They share their unique investment philosophies and delve into two high conviction stocks recommended for the HM1 portfolio.

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investing
October 3, 2023

Understanding the 4 pillar framework underpinning a high conviction strategy

Listen to episode one with Chief Investment Officer Charlie Lanchester and TDM Growth Partners Investment Team Members Ed Cowan and Fraser Christie. They share their unique investment philosophies and delve into two high conviction stocks recommended for the HM1 portfolio.

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investing