Jun Bei Liu is not giving up on the China reopening theme

Tribeca’s Jun Bei Liu says China’s reopening is only getting started, and names five ASX stocks set to benefit.

Jun Bei Liu is not giving up on the China reopening theme

March 12, 2023
Tribeca’s Jun Bei Liu says China’s reopening is only getting started, and names five ASX stocks set to benefit.
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When Jun Bei Liu presented at the Hearts & Minds investment conference in Hobart in November, China was just waking up from its zero-COVID lockdown.

On the mind of the viewers were the far-reaching implications of the measures announced by the Chinese government to relax COVID controls and support a cratering property sector.

As they say, the rest is history. These initial proposals were followed up by a more forceful set of statements and policy supports after the politburo meeting and Central Economic Work Conference.

The result was that China came out of its zero-COVID state much faster than expected as it pushed for herd immunity rather than flattening the curve, with the obvious impact to boost the economic outlook much faster than expected.

Fast-forward more than four months and we are already hearing the China reopening trade has fatigue. We don’t agree, nor think that many stocks exposed to the reopening theme are not short-term cyclical winners that should be sold and moved on from.

Instead, we think this theme has legs and will continue to surprise the doubters as reopening tailwinds remain in place for some time. It’s not unbridled optimism to think this will last for at least the next year, particularly if the experience of almost every other country to come out of lockdown is the blueprint.

At a time when Australian investors face elevated domestic cyclical risks, and when most other developed economies are either entering a recession or on the cusp of recession, we like looking for investment opportunities from the world’s second-largest economy but also one that is completely de-synchronised with the momentum of global growth and inflation.

In fact, the more bullish one becomes on China’s reopening trade, the more bearish one should be on how it may exacerbate global inflation and growth headwinds for the rest of the world, due to stronger commodity and energy demand and the release of the Chinese tourist and consumer.

Three ways to benefit

We think there are three ways to continue playing the reopening theme. First, through areas that are exposed to rising Chinese domestic demand. The Chinese consumer is likely to drive a significant boost to domestic demand for goods, but increasingly services. This also holds true for its trading partners in Asia and further afield.

Second, the return of Chinese tourists will release a wave of demand for foreign services that international travellers (and, in Australia’s case, students) demand. And third, through commodity demand as industrial activity picks up from its deep slump.

We know there’s an argument that China’s recovery will not be “industrial-heavy” as the focus sits on the consumer rather than the property and infrastructure sectors. But this will not preclude some normalisation in demand for energy (oil in particular) and other commodities (that can also support decarbonisation) even if the upside is not as large as prior periods where the government has leant on construction growth levers.

We like the idea of playing further momentum in these areas, while recognising the tailwinds will be different. Commodities are driven by global demand which, ex-China, is under pressure. But that statement conveniently forgets that China is still the world’s largest user of nickel, iron ore, aluminium and copper, to name just a few. Regardless of rest-of-world concerns, we suspect upgrade earnings risks remain from stocks most exposed to these areas.

Our preference for gaining exposure to the reopening thematic is via Chinese consumers – and through education and travel. They will continue to ramp up consumption in areas of discretionary spending such as branded (luxury) apparel, footwear, wine, and technology. This means Treasury Wines – which can benefit from thawing relations between China and Australia – A2 Milk, and the domestic educational sector (IDP Education) as Chinese students return.

Finally, those who are leveraged into the wider re-opening sphere, such as WiseTech and Cochlear, with a large share of Asian sales, stand to benefit from the tailwinds as Chinese economic momentum normalises.

We urge investors not to give up too early on the reopening theme. China is not anywhere near back to normal activity levels; this will take time.

It might be bumpy and there will be periods where doubts creep in on the sustainability of momentum. But when so many headwinds apply to the domestic backdrop, we think it makes sense to continue favouring areas with strong and identifiable tailwinds.

 

This article was originally posted by The Australian Financial Review here.

Licensed by Copyright Agency. You must not copy this work without permission.

Disclaimer: This material has been prepared by AFR, published on 12 March 2023. HM1 is not responsible for the content of linked websites or content prepared by third party. The inclusion of these links and third-party content does not in any way imply any form of endorsement by HM1 of the products or services provided by persons or organisations who are responsible for the linked websites and third-party content. This information is for general information only and does not consider the objectives, financial situation or needs of any person. Before making an investment decision, you should read the relevant disclosure document (if appropriate) and seek professional advice to determine whether the investment and information is suitable for you.

When Jun Bei Liu presented at the Hearts & Minds investment conference in Hobart in November, China was just waking up from its zero-COVID lockdown.

On the mind of the viewers were the far-reaching implications of the measures announced by the Chinese government to relax COVID controls and support a cratering property sector.

As they say, the rest is history. These initial proposals were followed up by a more forceful set of statements and policy supports after the politburo meeting and Central Economic Work Conference.

The result was that China came out of its zero-COVID state much faster than expected as it pushed for herd immunity rather than flattening the curve, with the obvious impact to boost the economic outlook much faster than expected.

Fast-forward more than four months and we are already hearing the China reopening trade has fatigue. We don’t agree, nor think that many stocks exposed to the reopening theme are not short-term cyclical winners that should be sold and moved on from.

Instead, we think this theme has legs and will continue to surprise the doubters as reopening tailwinds remain in place for some time. It’s not unbridled optimism to think this will last for at least the next year, particularly if the experience of almost every other country to come out of lockdown is the blueprint.

At a time when Australian investors face elevated domestic cyclical risks, and when most other developed economies are either entering a recession or on the cusp of recession, we like looking for investment opportunities from the world’s second-largest economy but also one that is completely de-synchronised with the momentum of global growth and inflation.

In fact, the more bullish one becomes on China’s reopening trade, the more bearish one should be on how it may exacerbate global inflation and growth headwinds for the rest of the world, due to stronger commodity and energy demand and the release of the Chinese tourist and consumer.

Three ways to benefit

We think there are three ways to continue playing the reopening theme. First, through areas that are exposed to rising Chinese domestic demand. The Chinese consumer is likely to drive a significant boost to domestic demand for goods, but increasingly services. This also holds true for its trading partners in Asia and further afield.

Second, the return of Chinese tourists will release a wave of demand for foreign services that international travellers (and, in Australia’s case, students) demand. And third, through commodity demand as industrial activity picks up from its deep slump.

We know there’s an argument that China’s recovery will not be “industrial-heavy” as the focus sits on the consumer rather than the property and infrastructure sectors. But this will not preclude some normalisation in demand for energy (oil in particular) and other commodities (that can also support decarbonisation) even if the upside is not as large as prior periods where the government has leant on construction growth levers.

We like the idea of playing further momentum in these areas, while recognising the tailwinds will be different. Commodities are driven by global demand which, ex-China, is under pressure. But that statement conveniently forgets that China is still the world’s largest user of nickel, iron ore, aluminium and copper, to name just a few. Regardless of rest-of-world concerns, we suspect upgrade earnings risks remain from stocks most exposed to these areas.

Our preference for gaining exposure to the reopening thematic is via Chinese consumers – and through education and travel. They will continue to ramp up consumption in areas of discretionary spending such as branded (luxury) apparel, footwear, wine, and technology. This means Treasury Wines – which can benefit from thawing relations between China and Australia – A2 Milk, and the domestic educational sector (IDP Education) as Chinese students return.

Finally, those who are leveraged into the wider re-opening sphere, such as WiseTech and Cochlear, with a large share of Asian sales, stand to benefit from the tailwinds as Chinese economic momentum normalises.

We urge investors not to give up too early on the reopening theme. China is not anywhere near back to normal activity levels; this will take time.

It might be bumpy and there will be periods where doubts creep in on the sustainability of momentum. But when so many headwinds apply to the domestic backdrop, we think it makes sense to continue favouring areas with strong and identifiable tailwinds.

 

This article was originally posted by The Australian Financial Review here.

Licensed by Copyright Agency. You must not copy this work without permission.

Disclaimer: This material has been prepared by AFR, published on 12 March 2023. HM1 is not responsible for the content of linked websites or content prepared by third party. The inclusion of these links and third-party content does not in any way imply any form of endorsement by HM1 of the products or services provided by persons or organisations who are responsible for the linked websites and third-party content. This information is for general information only and does not consider the objectives, financial situation or needs of any person. Before making an investment decision, you should read the relevant disclosure document (if appropriate) and seek professional advice to determine whether the investment and information is suitable for you.

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Navigating the Resource Sector with Jeremy Bond of Terra Capital

In this episode, we chat with Jeremy Bond, Founder of Terra Capital and HM1 Conference Fund Manager. Tune in for insights into the world of resource investments and the exciting opportunities that lie ahead.

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investing
June 11, 2024

Prof. Nadia Badawi on Cerebral Palsy Breakthroughs and Neonatal Care

Dive deep into the groundbreaking work of Professor Nadia Badawi, an internationally recognised neonatologist and expert in Cerebral Palsy.

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impact-podcasts
May 28, 2024

Investment Insights: Rikki Bannan on Top Picks and Trends

Join us for an engaging episode featuring Rikki Bannan, Portfolio Manager of IFM Investors and HM1 Conference Fund Manager. This episode explores Rikki's career journey, investment strategies, and her 2023 conference stock pick, Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX.TLX).

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investing
December 6, 2023

Peter Cooper talks building and instilling a culture of humility and excellence

In this episode, our guest is the renowned investor, Peter Cooper, founder and Chief Investment Officer of Cooper Investors (Core Fund Manager). A founding supporter of Hearts and Minds, Peter is a staunch advocate of our model and its philanthropic purpose, actively engaging in every facet of Hearts and Minds.

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investing
November 28, 2023

Jun Bei Liu on her high conviction investment strategy

In this episode, HM1 Chief Investment Officer Charlie Lanchester is joined by Jun Bei Liu. Jun Bei is the Portfolio Manager of Tribeca’s Alpha Plus Fund and since taking over managing the Fund, she has quadrupled AUM.

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investing
November 21, 2023

The world of rare genetic disease research

In this episode, we speak to Associate Professor Gina Ravenscroft. Gina is an Associate Professor in Neurogenetics at the Harry Perkins Institute of Medical Research in Perth. Her research interests are in rare genetic diseases, with a particular focus on neurogenetic diseases in babies and children.

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impact-podcasts
November 14, 2023

Learn what makes a high conviction investment and how to avoid short-term noise

In this episode, our Core Fund Manager Magellan shares how they select top stocks for the HM1 portfolio.

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investing
November 7, 2023

Delve into the world of kids critical care and trauma research

In thie episode, we are joined by Dr. Marino Festa, or Rino for short. He is the Medical Director of NSW Kids ECMO Referral Service and a senior specialist in Paediatric Intensive Care at Children’s Hospital at Westmead.

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impact-podcasts
October 31, 2023

Where Regal's Phil King is searching for opportunities

HM1's CIO, Charlie Lanchester, talks to Phil King of Regal Funds about his passion for stocks, his ongoing search for opportunities, and some of the sectors he’s excited by right now. Phil King of Regal Funds, has been a tremendous supporter of Hearts & Minds since the beginning.

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investing
October 24, 2023

Preventing recurrent miscarriages and birth defects

In this episode, CEO Paul Rayson is joined by renowned biomedical researcher Professor Sally Dunwoodie. Prof. Dunwoodie's groundbreaking work has revolutionised clinical practices and enabled genetic diagnostic tests worldwide. In 2017, her team achieved a double breakthrough with the potential to prevent recurrent miscarriages and various birth defects.

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impact-podcasts
October 17, 2023

Nick Griffin on how he finds global winners

In this episode, CIO Charlie Lanchester chats with Nick Griffin, the founding partner and CIO of Munro Partners, one of HM1's Core Fund Managers. They go over his career to date, reflect on the lessons he’s learned, and trace the decisions that led to him starting Munro.

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investing
October 10, 2023

How A/Prof Matt Call is teaching our body to kill cancer

In this episode, CEO Paul Rayson is joined by WEHI’s Associate Professor Matt Call to talk about his incredible research. Matt’s team teaches and trains the body's own immune cells to target and kill cancer cells.

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impact-podcasts
October 3, 2023

Understanding the 4 pillar framework underpinning a high conviction strategy

Listen to episode one with Chief Investment Officer Charlie Lanchester and TDM Growth Partners Investment Team Members Ed Cowan and Fraser Christie. They share their unique investment philosophies and delve into two high conviction stocks recommended for the HM1 portfolio.

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investing
October 3, 2023

Understanding the 4 pillar framework underpinning a high conviction strategy

Listen to episode one with Chief Investment Officer Charlie Lanchester and TDM Growth Partners Investment Team Members Ed Cowan and Fraser Christie. They share their unique investment philosophies and delve into two high conviction stocks recommended for the HM1 portfolio.

Read More
investing